Canada's housing market is showing persistent moderate to high ratings. Overall, the market is vulnerable due to overvaluation and overbuilding.
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
- Overvaluation at the national level remains moderate, but strong evidence of overvaluation continues to be seen in Toronto, Vancouver, Hamilton, and Victoria.
- Despite the recent price adjustments, the ratings of high degrees of vulnerability were maintained in Toronto and Hamilton. House prices are not fully supported by economic fundamentals such as personal disposable income and population growth.
- Vancouver’s housing market remained highly vulnerable. Overheating continues to be detected, as demand for multi-family units remains elevated, largely due to their relative affordability compared to single-detached homes. Inventories of both new and resale multi-family units are near all-time lows.
- Victoria’s overvaluation persisted with low inventory levels of new and resale homes.
- House prices in Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina appear broadly in line with fundamentals, but strong evidence of overbuilding is still observable. Both inventories of completed and unsold homes and rental vacancy rates are above the thresholds of overbuilding.
- Manitoba, Québec and Atlantic Canada housing markets were rated as showing low vulnerability.
CMHC’s HMA continues to find housing markets in Toronto, Hamilton, Vancouver and Victoria highly vulnerable due to price acceleration and overvaluation. There is low evidence of overbuilding overall at the national level but there are concerns surrounding overbuilding in Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina. In these markets, the inventory of new but unsold homes and rental vacancy rates remain high. Low vulnerability is detected for housing markets in Manitoba, Québec and the Atlantic.- Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
